The 2013 NHL Playoffs schedule is out. So are the betting odds on each series. And by looking at the odds you can gauge the probability each team has of advancing. I did this with the NBA Playoffs but most odds were absurdly high because the first round of the NBA playoffs is awful and predictable. The NHL playoffs are not. Last year s champions the Los Angeles Kings were an 8 seed. You are dumb if you don t watch the NHL playoffs. They re awesome.
Here are the odds for each series courtesy of BetOnline.ag.
(Note For astute readers realize this math doesn t account for the book s vigorish. This is technically the break even price the percentage of bets you need to win at that price to break even. Also there s some rounding and stuff so this isn t 100% precise. And the prices are fluid as the market reacts.)
First Round1) Blackhawks vs. 8) Wild
Series Price Blackhawks ( 475) Wild ( 390) Implied Probability Blackhawks 82.6% Wild 20.4%
Non expert analysis Is this inflated
Maybe slightly towards the hyped up Blackhawks but not much. Chicago is legit and Minnesota is not. Minnesota is probably the worst team in the playoffs and they limped in. Their only chance is Niklas B ckstr m standing on his Finnish head which is vaguely conceivable but unlikely. He s struggling too.
Verdict Don t bet on this. You re stupid to bet on a team that has an implied 82.6% chance in an NHL playoff series. But you re also stupid to bet on the worst team in a 16 team tournament that is best of seven.
4) Blues vs. 5) Kings
Series Price Blues ( 110) Kings ( 110) Implied Probability Blues 52.4% Kings 52.4%
Non expert analysis Is this inflated
Yes. These teams are very evenly matched but St. Louis nabbed home ice advantage and LA has had the biggest home away discrepancy in the league. Many will argue that s a Stanley Cup hangover thing but I m unsure why it persisted the entire year. I have written previously on how bad Kings goalie Jonathan Quick has been on the road this year but I m not sure people realize. It s entirely possible he ll turn things around in the playoffs and the Kings are talented but what signs has he shown None. (The blame obviously falls on his defense especially for the shots allowed too.)
Via ESPN
Oh yeah St. Louis is really good too.
Verdict I need to look a little bit more into this but at first glance I think there s a lot of value on the Blues.
2) Ducks vs. 7) Red Wings
Series Price Ducks ( 140) Red Wings ( 120) Implied Probability Ducks 58.3% Red Wings 45.5%
Non expert analysis Is this inflated
I think so. Nobody has bought the Ducks all year and that s reflected in this price. The Wings were garbage all year and then came on strong in the final few weeks. But they re an 7 seed for a reason and the Ducks dominated everyone until letting up a bit late in the year. They could do that though since they were basically locked into the No. 2 seed for a long long time. The Red Wings can t score and their main advantage is goalie Jimmy Howard. But I don t think he s better than Anaheim s Jonas Hiller and he may not even be better than Hiller s backup/platoon mate Viktor Fasth.
The Ducks are better than the Wings. And while home ice doesn t mean much in the NHL the Red Wings historically have one of the biggest home road discrepancies in the league. They are the 7 seed and they don t have home ice.
Verdict I like the Ducks.
4) Bruins vs. 5) Maple Leafs
Series Price Bruins ( 220) Maple Leafs ( 190) Implied Probability Bruins 68.8% Maple Leafs 34.5%
Non expert analysis Is this inflated
A little bit. I don t think the Bruins should be 220 favorites and I think that number will decrease as people bet the Maple Leafs. But the goalie/defense edge is vastly in the B s favor and I think they should win. I was hoping to bet Boston as slight favorites but that didn t happen. The Leafs aren t built like a playoff team they score a ton of goals but their peripherals suggest that some of that may be luck. They don t play good defense and goalie James Reimer isn t on the same level as Tuukka Rask.
Verdict For now no bet. Maybe a bit of value on Toronto. Hopefully it drops a lot so Boston is in play.
1) Penguins vs. 8) Islanders
Series Price Penguins ( 560) Islanders ( 455) Implied Probability Penguins 84.8% Islanders 18%
Non expert analysis Is this inflated
Yes. No NHL team with potential goaltending issues should have an implied 84.8% chance of winning a best of seven series against a high scoring talented squad. We don t know if Sidney Crosby will play either.
Pittsburgh is better all around. By a lot. I don t think the Islanders will win. But these odds are certainly a bit too high. Like I said this isn t the NBA. The Penguins aren t the Spurs the Islanders aren t the Kobe less Lakers.
The bet to watch for in this series will be the over. Two mercurial goalies two elite power plays two bad penalty kills and only one good defense (Pittsburgh). Goals galore unless Pitt s defense really steps up.
Verdict Not sure it s worth a bet but the Isles aren t a horrible flier to take. If you must indulge.
3) Canucks vs. 6) Sharks
Series Price Canucks ( 140) Sharks ( 120) Implied Probability Canucks 58.3% Sharks 45.5%
Non expert analysis Is this inflated
Maybe a tiny bit. I don t think the Sharks are especially good. But they made some nice additions at the trading deadline and they ve improved. They may have the best goalie in the NHL right now in Antti Niemi. If he plays his best they can beat anyone. I m not sure they can score enough but it s rarely a good idea to bet against a goalie this good in the playoffs. I think the Canucks are better (and that the Sharks struggle on the road) but I m not all that confident betting this.
Verdict There might be some value on Vancouver but I ll probably stay away. If you wait you may see a better price too.
2) Canadiens vs. 7) Senators
Series Price Canadiens ( 160) Senators ( 140) Implied Probability Canadiens 61.5% Senators 41.7%
Non expert analysis Is this inflated
Probably not. But I do like the Senators a bit. They have Craig Anderson in net who was out much of the season but has probably been better than anyone in the NHL when healthy. They are superior on defense. Also Montreal has one of the worst penalty kills in the league (OTT has one of the best). The Senators biggest weakness is scoring and an opponent with a poor penalty kill is a perfect matchup for them.
Montreal s Carey Price gets a lot of hype but he hasn t been great this year. He s capable of outplaying Anderson but in his current form he s much worse.
Verdict Probably a fair price but I do lean towards the Senators. Not sure if they re worth a bet yet but I ll look into it.
3) Capitals vs. 6) Rangers
Series Price Capitals ( 110) Rangers ( 110) Implied Probability Capitals 52.4% Rangers 52.4%
Non expert analysis Is this inflated
Yes. It pains me to say this as a Devils fan but the Rangers are probably your best value bet in the playoffs. They re worth a hard look at 26/1 to win the Stanley Cup. Henrik Lundqvist gives them a massive edge in net against the Caps. Their offense has struggled on the road but they ve come on late in the season and their defense is very good.
I only have one worry here the Rangers are ranked 22nd in 4 on 5 plus/minus per 60 minutes (penalty kill). The Capitals are first in 5 on 4 (power play). Goals are tough to come by on Lundqvist but special teams could be the difference.
Verdict There s definitely value on the Rangers but special teams could be their undoing.
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