Alex Gordon's Royals are set to square off against Mike Trout's Angels. (USATSI)
By virtue of a thrilling wild card win over the A's in 12 innings the Kansas City Royals have advanced to the American League Division Series round. Their reward is to square off against the mighty Los Angeles Angels who sported the best record in the majors this season winning 98 games.
The series is set to take place as follows
Game 1 Thursday Oct. 2 9 07 p.m. ETGame 2 Friday Oct. 3 9 37 p.m. ETGame 3 Sunday Oct. 5 7 37 p.m. ETGame 4 (if necessary) Monday Oct. 6 Time TBAGame 5 (if necessary) Wednesday Oct. 8 Time TBA
Let's break down the matchup position by position. As a gentle reminder this is just to give us an idea of where each team has strengths and weaknesses heading into the series. Don't get caught up into adding up which has more advantages and saying that's who is going to win. That's not how it works and games aren't played on paper.
Catcher Salvador Perez vs. Chris Iannetta
Though Iannetta isn't bad behind the plate Perez is far superior and also has more power. This isn't a blowout though as Iannetta's regular season on base percentage (.373) absolutely dwarfs Perez's (.289). That's a lot more outs Perez makes. I still like Perez here but it's not a wide margin at all.
First base Eric Hosmer vs. Albert Pujols
Hosmer shows flashes of being a great player and Pujols isn't close to the monster he once was but Pujols was better offensively in pretty much every category this season. Being in run producing batting spots in the order the power divide here (Pujols had 28 homers and 105 RBI while Hosmer had just nine and 58) gives a marked advantage to the Angels.
Second base Omar Infante vs. Howie Kendrick
Doesn't seem significant It is.
Take the lines ...
OI .252/.295/.337 21 2B 6 HR 66 RBI 50 R 9 SBHK .293/.347/.397 33 2B 7 HR 75 RBI 85 R 14 SB
Kendrick grades out as a better defender too. This isn't close.
Shortstop Alcides Escobar vs. Erick Aybar
Pretty similar in the batter's box both quality defensive players and threats on the basepaths. Where Escobar has an advantage (stolen bases) Aybar can match (home run power). We could nitpick and attempt to argue for one or the other or just realize it's mostly going to be a wash in a short series.
Third base Mike Moustakas vs. David Freese
Moustakas is a superb defender has better power and hit better once he returned from his demotion. Still he only hit .235/.289/.377 since that point so let's not act like he became George Brett. Freese is better than the above line albeit slightly. And the defense and power differences make it real close.
Left field Alex Gordon vs. Josh Hamilton
This shell of Josh Hamilton can't stay on the field is a poor defender and hit .263/.331/.414 this season. Gordon is durable one of the best defenders in baseball and hit .266/.351/.432 this season. The edge is moderate in the batter's box if not closer to even but the health defense and even baserunning significantly tilt the scales toward the Kansas City MVP candidate.
Center field Lorenzo Cain vs. Mike Trout
Cain is a very nice player but you're out of your mind if you want to argue this. For the third straight year Trout was an MVP caliber player.
Right field Nori Aoki vs. Kole Calhoun
You know how sometimes a relatively unknown player (to casual fans nationally not specific to the player's hometown fans or die hards) becomes an October sensation Calhoun has the capability to be one of those players. An ankle injury cost him 31 games early in the season but since then Calhoun has been the table setter for Trout and Pujols hitting .285/.339/.461 with 27 doubles 14 homers 52 RBI and 78 runs in his past 453 plate appearances. He's no star but he does everything well and is very fun to watch. Aoki is a fine player but there's a large gap in power here that favors Calhoun and Aoki isn't much better than Calhoun at anything else. I toyed with making this a significant edge.
Designated hitter Billy Butler vs. C.J. Cron
Cron had more homers in just over half the games. He's greatly talented but still a rookie with only 253 career MLB plate appearances. Butler has him in average and on base percentage in addition to career pedigree. We can't discount that Butler hit .313/.373/.510 with 29 homers two years ago. We also can't discount that he only had nine homers this season and looked lost at the plate for long stretches. We'll just call it even.
Bench
We saw what the Royals can do on the basepaths with pinch runners in the wild card game while there's some potential thump in Josh Willingham and Raul Ibanez. The Angels have a few useful role players but the impact of their bench players should be minimal.
Starting pitching Jason Vargas Danny Duffy James Shields and Yordano Ventura vs. Jered Weaver C.J. Wilson and Matt Shoemaker
This would probably be significant toward Kansas City if Shields hadn't just been burned and Vargas was throwing as well as he was earlier in the season. With Shields likely only slated for Game 3 though the Royals will have to lean heavily on Vargas. He's 3 6 with a 4.50 ERA since the beginning of August. Duffy (Game 4) Shields and maybe even Ventura (Game 2) are capable of quality work though. And Vargas still has the potential to throw well.
Weaver's record looks great thanks to being in a good situation but his ERA (3.59) is just about average. Wilson (Game 3) is likely envious of the average performance though because he has struggled this season and can't be counted on for a consistent performance. Shoemaker (Game 2) had an outstanding rookie year but he's coming off an injury and is a major question mark. And Weaver will be coming in on short rest in Game 4.
Bullpen Greg Holland Wade Davis Kelvin Herrera Brandon Finnegan et al vs. Huston Street Joe Smith Kevin Jepsen Mike Morin et al
Holland and Davis form the best 1 2 punch at the back end of any bullpen in baseball. As a whole though the Royals' bullpen ERA (3.30) was fifth in the AL while the Angels' (3.52) was seventh. Keep in mind too that the Angels were a work in progress earlier in the season at the back end but have now settled in with a great duo in Street and Smith. They also made some adjustments and added some other pieces. The bullpen ERA since the All Star break was 3.12 for example. It's actually an underrated bullpen at this point though I still like KC very very slightly. If this was a scale from zero to 10 with five being the even I would have the Royals at about 5.5.
Defense
The Royals were the best defensive team in baseball by many different measures. They are excellent on the left side with Moustakas Escobar and Gordon. Cain is very good in center while Perez is outstanding behind the plate too.
The Angels are up for discussion. Some metrics (defensive WAR) say they're very good. Some (defensive runs saved) say they're bad. There seems to be some consensus that Kendrick is very good but Aybar and Iannetta to name two are all over the place. Trout has his moments but doesn't get to nearly as much as he did in 2012.
Overall the edge is clear. How big an edge is of course up for debate. It is defense after all.
Manager Ned Yost vs. Mike Scioscia
Scioscia is the longest tenured and one of the more respected managers in baseball. He helped guide his team to a huge bonce back season after a disappointing 2013 and they've had plenty of adversity in the form of injuries (Calhoun Hamilton Garrett Richards) underperformance (Hamilton Wilson early bullpen troubles) and he has figured out the bullpen.
Yost has to be commended for helming the Royals' first playoff team since 1985 but he makes lots of questionable decisions when it comes to the choice of reliever before he gets to Davis and Holland. His players bailed him out for doing just that in the sixth inning of the wild card game. Speaking of which he essentially admitted the Butler snafu on the bases in the first inning was his doing. Can he be trusted in five games against Scioscia I know who I would rather have in my dugout and it's not close.
Prediction
It's a big deal that the Royals just had to ride Shields to get to this round. He'll now have to wait until Game 3 at the earliest and will likely only get one start this series. We also can't discount how much the Royals just had to drain their tank to get through that marathon thriller. A case could be made that the Royals seem like one of those never say die or little engine that could teams I guess. It's also feasible Shields could come back on real short rest in Game 5 I guess but the hunch here is it's not going to get that far. The Angels bring the thump offensively and get just enough pitching to win in four games. They are the superior team and that matters more than some narrative about an underdog.
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