The strengths of the 2015 NFL draft appear to be at defensive end wide receiver and running back but the fundamental concept of supply and demand could push quarterbacks Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota as well as safety Landon Collins into the top 10.
Quarterback and safety have never been more valued than in today's pass happy NFL and with the depth at these positions lacking this year teams needing help at the respective positions could be forced to roll the dice.
The following is my latest first round projection of the 2015 NFL Draft.
The selection order for this mock draft is based on the current records of teams with point differential breaking all ties. The Cleveland Browns own the rights to the Buffalo Bills' selection due to the Sammy Watkins trade.
1. Oakland Raiders Leonard Williams DT Southern Cal As the only winless franchise in the NFL this season the Raiders are projected to earn the No. 1 overall in 2015. Teams picking at the top will always look to available quarterbacks first but rookie Derek Carr has been a relative bright spot for Oakland. Second on the priority list for teams in today's NFL are defensive linemen. The 6 5 290 pound Williams is a physical mismatch too quick for interior linemen and too powerful for offensive tackles.
2. Jacksonville Jaguars Randy Gregory DE Nebraska The Jaguars' record isn't pretty but head coach Gus Bradley's infectious enthusiasm a hard hitting defense and talented rookie quarterback Blake Bortles have this franchise on the upswing. Gregory is well suited to starring in Bradley's hybrid 4 3 alignment at the LEO defensive end as he's long (6 5 242 pounds) explosive and passionate against both the run and pass.
3. New York Jets Jameis Winston QB Florida State Unless the Jets suddenly turn things around Rex Ryan will be coaching elsewhere in 2015 and that may just be the start of the changes. Current general manager John Idzik is not the kind of risk taker to gamble on Famous Jameis' propensity for off field trouble but his potential replacement could be more adventurous. Regardless of what you think about Winston's character it is hard to deny his talent. In terms of size arm mobility and instincts he's the top quarterback prospect in the country.
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Marcus Mariota QB Oregon Though reasonably productive since taking over for free agent addition Josh McCown Mike Glennon remains overly reliant on his arm showing little ability to escape pressure or poise when the pocket breaks down. These are traits absolutely critical in today's game. Mariota is a work in progress himself but he shows good awareness in the pocket a live arm and of course great mobility. Mariota's speed and the great size of Tampa's pass catchers would put an awful lot of stress on opposing defenses.
5. Tennessee Titans Vic Beasley OLB Clemson Rookie Zach Mettenberger will be given every opportunity to prove he can be Ken Whisenhunt's starting quarterback. The Titans didn't address their need for outside rushers to fit new defensive coordinator Ray Horton's scheme in the 2014 draft but could see the highly athletic Beasley as the perfect fit. Beasley possesses an explosive first step to create immediate stress on quarterbacks as well as the acceleration to chase down ball carriers from behind.
6. Atlanta Falcons Shawn Oakman DE Baylor Surrendering a 21 point lead to lose to Detroit is just the latest kick in the gut for Atlanta this season. The Falcons have the firepower on offense to compete but lack difference makers on the defensive front. Powerful and shockingly athletic given his massive (6 foot 8 275 pounds) frame Oakman possesses the kind of traits teams are willing to gamble on.
7. Washington Redskins Landon Collins S Alabama Washington hasn't boasted a truly fearsome safety since the late Sean Taylor was patrolling the deep middle. At 6 0 215 pounds Collins isn't as big as the former phenom but he shows a similarly exciting blend of explosiveness and ball skills.
8. St. Louis Rams Dorial Green Beckham WR Oklahoma Despite recent early picks invested at wide receiver the Rams still lack a true No. 1. Green Beckham is a top 10 talent who is drawing comparisons to Cincinnati Bengals' star A.J. Green for his size speed and ball skills but he comes with significant off field concerns. Jeff Fisher has been more willing than most to gamble on players with character red flags and he could see DGB as simply too talented to pass up.
9. Chicago Bears Shane Ray DE/OLB Missouri Despite investments in free agency and the draft the Bears' defense remains alarmingly toothless. Ray the SEC's leading sack artist has the explosiveness off the edge to quickly improve Chicago's pass rush.
10. Carolina Panthers Cedric Ogbuehi OT Texas AM With the selection of Kelvin Benjamin and free agent addition of sure handed veteran Jericho Cotchery the Panthers addressed weapons for Cam Newton but failed to address the offensive line protecting him. They won't make the same mistake this year especially if a gifted prospect like Ogbuehi were to fall into their lap.
11. New York Giants Shaq Thompson OLB Washington The Giants have been gashed by athletic running backs this season drawing unwanted attention to a slower than ideal back seven. The 6 2 225 pound Thompson doesn't possess great size but his athleticism and instincts have helped him stand out wherever the Huskies have needed him including at safety linebacker and most recently at running back. He projects best to the NFL as a hybrid defender who is just as effective in coverage as coming up in run support.
12. Minnesota Vikings Brandon Scherff OT Iowa The Vikings are set at tackle with Matt Kalil and Phil Loadholt but with the focus on deep drops and power running in Norv Turner's offense strong play on the interior is also a priority. Scherff a collegiate tackle with the strong hands and nasty disposition to project well inside too would be a solid building block for a franchise looking to reinvent itself around Teddy Bridgewater.
13. Houston Texans Marcus Peters CB Washington With JJ Watt leading the way the Texans' defense has been impressive even with Jadeveon Clowney struggling with injury and thus far failing to live up to expectations. Peters' combination of length athleticism physicality and ball skills has him in contention to be the first defensive back selected in 2015.
14. San Francisco 49ers Amari Cooper WR Alabama The agility and first step acceleration that helped Cooper star as a true freshman is clearly back and he's dominating again looking like an easy favorite thus far to be the first Biletnikoff Award winner in Alabama's history. The 49ers would be wise to continue adding to their receiving corps with Anquan Boldin aging and talented (but injury prone) Michael Crabtree entering the final year of his rookie contract.
15. New Orleans Saints Trae Waynes CB Michigan State Despite millions invested in fixing the secondary the Saints have struggled against the pass this season surrendering an average of nearly 270 yards per game and twice as many touchdowns (12) as interceptions (six). Some scouts feel that Waynes is a better prospect than his former teammate Darqueze Dennard last year's Thorpe Award winner and the Bengals' first round pick.
16. San Diego Chargers DeVante Parker WR Louisville Keenan Allen is a reliable route runner and pass catcher but he doesn't strike fear into the hearts of defenders. Parker missed the first seven games of the year with a broken fifth toe in his left foot but the 6 3 209 pounder has starred since demonstrating the fluidity and ball skills to project as a No. 1 target.
17. Cleveland Browns (from BUF) Kevin White WR West Virginia The Browns' defense and running game have been good enough to make them competitive but the lack of a top flight receiver limits the team's upside. The club is hopeful of course that Josh Gordon will re emerge as a superstar but can't rely on him. No player has boosted his stock more this season than White a 6 3 209 pound who climbs the ladder to make contested catches look easy.
18. Cleveland Browns Andrus Peat OT Stanford The Browns boast one of the league's best left tackles in Joe Thomas but could use reinforcements at right tackle where Mitchell Schwartz is coming off a disappointing second season. Peat blessed with remarkable balance and agility for a man of his 6 7 315 pound dimensions and his experience in the conservative Stanford offense could make him especially attractive to the run heavy Browns.
19. Seattle Seahawks Devin Funchess WR/TE Michigan It was a terrific defense and the running of Marshawn Lynch that helped Seattle capture its first Super Bowl last year but opponents had to at least be aware of Percy Harvin and Golden Tate each of whom could create big plays on their own. With both playing elsewhere now however Seattle is struggling to pass the ball with any consistency. Whether at receiver or tight end the 6 5 235 pound Funchess offers a unique skill set that could remind GM John Schneider of Jermichael Finley a formidable seam threat he saw while both worked in Green Bay.
20. Green Bay Packers Dante Fowler DE/OLB Florida A healthy Clay Matthews and rejuvenated Julius Peppers have improved Green Bay's pass rusher this season but neither has proven reliable enough for the Packers to ignore this year's bounty of edge defenders. Fowler lines up all over the Gators defense and is comfortable rushing (or dropping) from either the two or three point stance.
21. Miami Dolphins Todd Gurley RB Georgia While Lamar Miller has played well since re taking over as the top back GM Dennis Hickey and head coach Joe Philbin didn't show great faith in him when signing Knowshon Moreno prior to the season. Miller and Moreno are each capable NFL starters when healthy but neither possesses Gurley's talent. Whether he plays another snap again this season or not Gurley's power balance and surprising speed make him a virtual lock for the first round.
22. Kansas City Chiefs Jaelen Strong WR Arizona State Despite a receiving corps that hasn't yet caught a touchdown the Chiefs continue to play well. Providing more weapons on the perimeter would seem to be a priority for Kansas City in the off season however especially given that this year's crop seems very strong yet again. Strong is the operative word as aptly named 6 4 205 pound junior has the size and physicality to win contested passes.
23. Indianapolis Colts Benardrick McKinney LB Mississippi State The development of Bjoern Werner has lessened Indianapolis' need for outside linebackers but inside remains an issue with former Cleveland Brown D'Qwell Jackson struggling to make an impact. McKinney offers a rare package of length athleticism and versatility that is likely to earn him a top 25 selection.
24. Baltimore Ravens Melvin Gordon RB Wisconsin Running backs may not hold the same value in today's pass happy NFL but difference makers at any position are worthy of first round consideration. The Ravens have survived with journeymen running backs this season and could see Gordon's agility acceleration and big play potential as precisely what their offense has been lacking.
25. Pittsburgh Steelers PJ Williams CB Florida State An aging defense needs reinforcements at virtually every level. Williams has the athleticism and instincts to boost Pittsburgh's coverage downfield.
26. Dallas Cowboys Alvin Bud Dupree DE/OLB Kentucky The Cowboys are hopeful that 2014 rookie Demarcus Lawrence will significantly boost their outside pass rush but that won't keep the team from adding reinforcements. Dupree the SEC's leading active pass rusher is long instinctive and closes in a flash.
27. Cincinnati Bengals La'el Collins OL LSU Few teams reload along the line of scrimmage as consistently as the frugal Bengals and with starting left tackle Andrew Whitworth entering his ninth season and the clubs' backups (Marshall Newhouse Will Svitek) entering the final year of their contracts Cincinnati is likely to be on the lookout for potential replacements. Like Whitworth (who also starred at LSU) Collins doesn't necessarily look the part of an NFL left tackle sporting a square ish frame. He's surprisingly effective on the edge however and is a mauler in the running game.
28. Detroit Lions Eddie Goldman DT Florida State With starters Ndamukong Suh and Nick Fairley in the final year of their respective contracts the Lions will be scouting the defensive tackle class as closely as any team in the league and Goldman is generating plenty of buzz. The 6 4 320 pound junior is a former top recruit who's enjoyed a breakout campaign back inside this season after starting at end last year for the champs.
29. Philadelphia Eagles AJ Cann OG South Carolina Guards Todd Herremans and Evan Mathis have been relative weak spots along Philadelphia's offense line contributing to the Eagles' struggles running the football and in pass protection. Whereas many of the other top guard prospects in 2015 play their collegiate ball at tackle (and therefore will need time to acclimate) Cann's entire career has been spent inside and so theoretically he'd be able to contribute sooner.
30. Denver Broncos Ty Sambrailo OT Colorado State For as dominant as the Broncos have appeared for much of this season there remain areas of concern. Right tackle for example has been an ongoing issue for the Broncos this season.
31. New England Patriots Danny Shelton NG Washington The Patriots are flying high after an impressive victory over Denver. Holding up to a power running game however remains a concern given the absence (and age) of nose guard Vince Wilfork. Shelton's wide frame and tenacity would likely be valued by Bill Belichick and his staff.
32. Arizona Cardinals Hau'oli Kikaha DE/OLB Washington Everyone expected that an athletic and physical secondary would be the calling card of the NFC West's top team. Few however were predicting in the preseason that it would be the secondary based in Arizona. An improved pass rush would make Patrick Peterson Tyrann Mathieu and the surprising 7 1 Cardinals that much more effective. Kikaha's burst and active hands have helped him register impressive numbers as a pass rusher throughout his career but it is the awareness and fluidity in coverage he's shown this season that has his stock on the rise.
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