UTAH COUNTY Among one of the warmest driest winters in Utah County history Groundhog Day groundhogs may give more than a cursory nod to local Mother Nature s obvious distaste for cold or wet in the valley.
If he predicts an extended winter it s not that much of a winter anyway said Lance Madigan Lehi resident.
He said he was a Californian kid.
These aren t much worse than the winters in L.A. Madigan said of the 2014 2015 Utah winter.
Calling Groundhog Day a fun tradition that people look forward to he said the holiday gives a morale boost one way or the other to the community.
If he predicts a long winter then we say well he is never right anyway and if he predicts a short winter then we are happy Madigan said.
In fact the annual groundhog tradition has a 30 40 percent accuracy rate in predicting an early or late spring depending on who or what entity is providing the numbers.
Given the national weather reports of more snow storms for the eastern coast the world famous Punxsutawney Phil in Pennsylvania has a better chance that he won t see his shadow meaning a short winter and time to quit hibernating.
His groundhog predictions would be correct for Utah County however where getting more snow in the valley is looking pretty grim.
To get a live stream of Phil predicting an early or late spring in Punxsutawny go to www.groundhog.org from 5 to 10 a.m. Intermountain time.
Asher Madigan age 8 isn t sure about the meaning of Groundhog Day.
I don t know that much about it Lance Madigan s son said.
It is supposed to tell if it s winter or not something like that Asher said.
Given an East Coast groundhog or an arthritic Lehi neighbor like Gary Findlay chances are better with the neighbor. Although Findlay is a firm believer in the annual groundhog event.
You bet it works he said.
Findlay has a condition he calls Uncle Arthur itus that reliably predicts weather changes.
It s worse when the weather gets bad Findlay said. Right now he s crying it hurts.
National Weather Service predictions for the week in Utah Valley agree with Uncle Arthur with dense fog and a moist west to northwest air flow that developed Sunday and will persist through Wednesday.
Monday through Saturday there will be a series of weak weather disturbances in this flow that will bring periods of accumulating snow to the mountains with rain and/or snow in the adjacent valley.
Given the NWS fog prediction a groundhog in Utah County tomorrow would probably predict an early spring anyway.
High pressure above will arrive late in the week. Dry conditions and above normal temperatures are expected late in the week as well and through the first half of the weekend. Avalanche danger is mild and moderate although caution and common sense is always advised.
Air quality is improving likely from moisture and other factors earlier this week and is moving from moderate quality and voluntary conservation action to clean and no action advised.
As the Utah County Health Department spokesman Madigan said air quality is something that is broadcast by the Utah Health Department but analyzed initially by the Utah Department of Air Quality in Salt Lake.
There are a lot of different factors that go into why they predict certain conditions anywhere from wind precipitation high or low pressures moving through Madigan said. When it sits and settles is when we get the problem.
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