The first numbers are in for Warner Bros. Edge of Tomorrow. The Tom Cruise/Emily Blunt sci fi thriller earned an okay $1.8 million in Thursday night previews which started around the country last night at around 8 00pm. In terms of relatively similar comparisons White House Down earned $1.35m via its Thursday night previews last June while Now You See Me earned $1.5m and After Earth earned $1m in Thursday previews in late May of last year. Now You See Me and White House Down earned around 5% of their weekend total on Thursday ending their weekends with $29m and $24m respectively. After Earth earned 3.5% of its $27m debut on Thursday. The best news is that the Thursday number is higher than the $1.1m earned by Tom Cruise s Oblivion in April 2013 and that film earned 2.9% of its $37m weekend on Thursday.
The only question is whether Edge of Tomorrow earns closer to 3% of its weekend on Thursday or closer to 5% of its weekend on Thursday. That may not be a huge percentage per se but it will make a difference come Sunday morning. To wit if the film plays exactly like White House Down which earned 5.5% of its weekend total on Thursday Edge of Tomorrow will end the weekend with $32 million for the weekend which is actually a pretty solid number considering the fear of an under $25m debut heading into last night. I would argue that the worst case scenario is that it did 6.5% of its business last night giving the film a $28m debut weekend. The best case scenario somewhat unlikely I ll admit is that Edge of Tomorrow plays like Oblivion and thus earns just 2.9% of its weekend total on Thursday giving the Time Warner Inc. release an obscenely high $60m opening weekend.
Now I don t think anyone is expecting the Tom Cruise/Emily Blunt film to open with $60 million over the weekend but the relative comparisons argue that the film isn t the preordained flop that some had written it off as. This also shows the somewhat tricky nature of guesstimating weekend box office with films that don t have a preexisting obsessive fan base. So being realistic we re probably looking at a Thursday to weekend % of between 3.5% and 5.5%. Ironically that s basically what Thursday previews represented even a few years ago for major releases back when the midnight/Thursday preview culture was less mainstream. So barring an inexplicable crash and barring a miracle Edge of Tomorrow is arguably looking at an opening weekend of between $32m and $51m.
On principle I m inclined to guestimate closer to $35 million than $50m if only because $50m for the weekend would put the film in uncharted territory for a Tom Cruise film outside of War of the Worlds and the Mission Impossible franchise. Nonetheless the film is absolutely terrific and the reviews have been beating said drum for over two weeks. The one advantage the film will have over The Fault in Our Stars (whose Thursday preview numbers have not been released) is that general moviegoers just arbitrarily deciding on a night out are more likely to choose the Tom Cruise sci fi action thriller as opposed to the Shailene Woodley teen centric cancer drama. And for the film to get to the feared $25m or below range it would have to have an unusually front loaded 7.2% in terms of its Thursday to weekend box office which is the kind of figure you get for a heavily anticipated sequel or geek centric property.
Of course as always with the Thursday box office this is all just fun with math. But I think I can comfortably presume that Edge of Tomorrow which you really ought to see this weekend will find itself opening above the $30 million range this weekend. We ll know when we know and you ll see it here when we know. In the meantime go see Edge of Tomorrow preferably in IMAX 3D on principle and go see The Fault in Our Stars while you re at it.
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